An Integrated Approach to Map the Impact of Climate Change on the Distributions of Crataegus azarolus and Crataegus monogyna in Kurdistan Region, Iraq

The hawthorns Crataegus azarolus L. and monogyna Jacq are two ecologically medicinally important endemic tree species that occur only in forests of oak the mountain ranges Kurdistan region Iraq (KRI). These have been degrading across at an alarming pace due to climate-related factors (e.g., wildfire events drought) anthropogenic drivers. Nevertheless, there is a gap understanding their distributions today future under changing climate Iraq. To address species’ knowledge thus establish baseline for management conservation strategy, this study used field observation records, distribution modeling integrated with GIS techniques, relevant environmental predictors (i) estimate potential map current known unsurveyed areas; (ii) model possible response several scenarios weather change future; (iii) overlap direction distributions. Results suggest global climatic models (GCMs), BCC-CSM2-MR CNRM-CM6-1, overall habitat expansion magnitude would be less than reduction magnitude. For C. azarolus, range contract by 3714.64 km2 (7.20%) 3550.47 (6.89%), whereas it expand 2415.90 (4.68%) 1627.76 (3.16%) GCMs, respectively. Modeling also demonstrated similar pattern monogyna. 7626.53 (14.80%) 7351.45 (14.27%) GCMs. significantly climate. mostly toward KRI’s east southeast forests. Our results, first time, provide new data on present outline advantages combined geospatial techniques areas where limited, such as